Our timelines are all wrong

COVID-19 is here to stay and school is out for summer

Thanks to the avalanche of never-ending negative news coverage, and as evidenced by the lack of toilet paper on every stock shelf in America, I think most of us have started to (rightly) worry about the upcoming impact of COVID-19 on our lives.

But as far as I can tell, many people are still greatly underestimating when the chaos ends and our regular lives resume. When my son’s school was cancelled last week, his teacher spoke to me about how she was looking forward to starting fresh again with their scheduled late-April archeology dig. The mom of another classmate wondered if she should pack for two weeks or three as they head to their country house this weekend. My sister in a last-ditch effort to keep her energetic boys entertained took out about a dozen library books before going into self-imposed isolation.

They are forgiven for being so optimistic, as their optimism is reinforced by companies like Disney which closed its parks until “the end of the month of March.” And Broadway which suspended its shows until April 12th. And Nike and Apple which closed all stores until March 27th. I think the general consensus at this point is that the impact of COVID-19 will be felt through March and some of April, and then life will resume as normal.

As one of my favorite TV characters once said “Dream another dream, cowboy, that’s not how this is going to shake out.”

Here are the facts as we know them:

• COVID-19 is a global pandemic with an infection rate that is exponential.
• A single person can infect thousands in a matter of days. Case in point, Patient 31 in Korea.
• The U.S. government has been lagging in testing and in containing the virus. The number infected in the U.S. is many multiple that of the official estimates.
• Every day that we delay in putting the entire country on lockdown is another day where the ultimate cost borne will have grown exponentially.
• A vaccine is very optimistically a year away. Please note that we still do not have a SARS vaccine although we started working on it 17 years ago.
• There is currently no cure (although a few treatment options are emerging). Thus far, isolation and containment are our only options for slowing the spread and not forcing the collapse of our already overburdened medical system.

So what will have changed between now and April 12th that will allow for Broadway to reopen? For schools to reopen? For Disneyland to reopen? Do you think there will be more or less cases of COVID-19 infections in America in April than there are today?

A piecemeal approach does NOT work to contain this virus. Social distancing is almost impossible in places like NYC where you are shoulder to shoulder on any form of public transportation. Frankly, it doesn’t help that my kids are home from school, if my husband is expected to take the Q train to his job on a trading floor that sits 300 people.

Let’s not forget that Wuhan, where the outbreak started, is still on lockdown. Their lockdown started on January 23rd. It’s been almost two months. There has been no word from the Chinese government on when it will end, probably because they themselves do not know. Because this virus is so contagious that all it will take is for a single infected person to be unleashed for there to be a double peak. A second surge of infections.

Studies have shown us that to be effective, quarantines have to last such that every last person who has the disease is identified, isolated, and hopefully cured. Seeing that currently we still have our heads buried in the sand, I’d say the U.S. is several months (if not years) away from that outcome.

And even if we somehow isolated and cured every American within our borders, how do we prevent the virus from coming in from abroad again and again during a global pandemic?

There are no easy answers. There is only the inevitable.

Please ignore all the optimistic rhetoric from our do-nothing politicians. Here is what you actually need to do now (P.S. This is for anyone under age 60; everyone else should already be in isolation):

THOSE WITH CHILDREN

• Prepare for the fact that your children will be home for the next few months. Schools will likely not open until September (if then). Create daily activity charts and schedules.
• Summer camps will also get cancelled. See what their refund policy is.
• Even if you are against screen-time in general, make a list of your child’s best friends and the best ways/times for them to FaceTime each other, daily or weekly. Our kids are about to get cabin fever…let’s do all we can to minimize the impact of this time on them psychologically.
• Kids grow like weeds. Buy their summer shoes and clothing before the stores close down.

THOSE WHO LIVE IN APARTMENT BUILDINGS

• Talk to management/neighbors and your board about what will happen once all the people who help run your building are no longer allowed to come to work. Who will be responsible for things like garbage collection? For maintenance? Come up with solutions as a community now.
• Make a list of neighbors who may need your help to do grocery runs. Set up a schedule to have them checked in on. Maybe buy whiteboards for people’s front doors for communal messaging. (How Freshman year!)

THOSE WHO LIVE IN STAND-ALONE DWELLINGS

• Think of all the small maintenance issues that your house requires to function well. Schedule and have them done immediately.
• It’s not a bad idea to start a vegetable and herb garden. You will soon have plenty of time to tend it, and on the plus side, you would have a steady supply of fresh vegetables throughout the summer.

EVERYONE

• Restaurants are going to close down soon and indefinitely. It’s not enough to buy some beans and rice. Prepare weekly menus and make sure you have the ingredients to make those meals.
• Your local library has a ton of virtual services. Register today.
• If the number of cases in your area is not overwhelming, get your last haircut, coloring, what-have-you. (Not in NYC, but maybe if you live in Oklahoma or Alaska.)
• And while you are doing all of this, if you can afford to, please tip and tip well. I am talking 50+% for any service you receive. Many hourly service workers are about to experience drastic reductions in their pay, unless the government steps up in a big way.
• If you have the privilege to employ a nanny and/or housekeeper please consider paying them in advance for the next few weeks. Help them set-up venmo/paypal so that you can continue supporting them to some extend even if they cannot come in.
• Think long and hard about where you want to ride out this storm. Is it in a Manhattan studio with your 55-inch screen and top-speed wifi? Is it at Grandma’s house in the middle of nowhere? There are pros and cons to each. But I will tell you this much…you have at most two weeks to get from here to there and then travel will become near impossible. So decide where you want to be and then get there.

Look, it gives me no pleasure to say these things. I am not some crazy nut job sitting in my fallout shelter. I am a NYC mom with two kids and a career in research. I want my kids to go back to school. I want life to return back to normal. But none of that is likely any time soon — and I refuse to let denial stand in the way of adequate preparation.

Our government is not acting fast enough now. But very soon, it will have to. Once the inevitable becomes front-page news, everything will shut down. I beg you to use your time wisely between now and then.