COVID-19: There is no curve

How we have set ourselves up for the worst-case scenario and what we can do about it now.

Just like many of you, I have been watching the events unfolding in our country with bated breath. Hoping, praying for a different outcome. A quick end. A “return to normalcy.”

But as we delay the inevitable, day after day, it has become crystal clear that things are going to get much worse before they get better.

The fact is that the only way this contagion can be slowed or stopped is with a 6–10-week country-wide shelter-in-place for all non-essential workers. (Or aggressive testing well beyond our current capabilities.) But these particular options are being stubbornly resisted by the powers that be. Which in turn spells nothing good for the rest of us. The longer we resist, the harder hit our country will be, and the longer the pain will last.

There is this insistence that in New York City, in Italy, in Spain, that we are near the apex of the viral curve. That once we get over the hump, life may return to some semblance of normality.

This is a fallacy.

At this point, the only reason for any slowdown in rate of deaths and cases of contagion is that many of us are on lockdown, either voluntarily or otherwise. It’s not because we’ve somehow gotten better at treating the virus or found a way to not transmit it to people in close quarters. That means that as soon as we relax the barriers that keep us separated, the virus will peak again. And it will keep doing so until either enough of us are immune (after having recovered) or we find a vaccine.

The fact is there is no curve. No apex. No “things will get better now.”

Frankly, a better visual for the ride we are on is a roller coaster. A peak will come in a few days, then if we let down our guard, another peak will follow about 6 to 8 weeks after that, and then another 6 to 8 weeks after that, and so on and so forth.

So what do you do when you get on a roller coaster? That’s right.

It’s time to strap in.

Here is what is in our immediate future:

• The closing of all international borders. If you were thinking of taking advantage of the current offering of dirt-cheap flights, don’t. Instead look into the cancellation policies of any trips you may have coming up throughout 2020. Mark the potential cancellation dates on your calendar so that you do not miss it on a technicality.
• Schools/Camps canceled. It is becoming increasingly difficult to see a scenario whereby camp is possible in June/July or even how schools start back up in September. I think if you are in college, this may be a great time to schedule a gap year. (Why pay college prices for a 100% online experience?) If you have kids under the age of 18, see what online classes will be available during the summer. If you live in the suburbs, bulk up on outdoor toys/bikes/fishing rods and so on. Biking, hiking, fishing will be some of the few activities available to kids (and us).
• Isolation continues. There is absolutely no concrete evidence that the summer heat will give us a break. The virus has so far done a remarkable job spreading in any country it reaches, no matter its daytime temperatures. That means that you should plan on working from home for many months to come. And count yourself lucky that you have a job, because there will also be:
• Massive unemployment. We have already started seeing this happen, but it is going to get far worse, very quickly. Because of the way the United States is structured (at-will employment, gig economy) — we are going to be looking at 30% unemployment rates before the end of the summer. To put that in context, at the height of the Great Depression, the unemployment rate was 24.9%. Let me also state that we do not have the infrastructure in place to deal with a 30% unemployment rate. There are already long lines at unemployment offices, websites crashing, and phone-lines busy for hours on end. It’s just going to get worse. Now is the time to have a frank discussion with your employer. Think of alternatives to unemployment such as a reduced salary or an alternate job function. If you work for a small company be sure to tell them about the loan programs that allow for loan forgiveness as long as the company keeps its workers employed.
• Medicare for all. The inevitable conclusion of this vast unemployed (thus uninsured) workforce is that at some point the government will simply have to extend medicare to more and more people or risk the collapse of our entire medical system. If the government remains particularly stubborn on this point, they will do it via hospital bailouts. If they wanted to save money and be efficient, they would do it by increasing the number of people eligible for medicare. Either way, they will soon have to take care of the medical bills of an avalanche of sick people without insurance.

With all that in mind, here are some things you should be doing now:

Make a will. I know how morbid it sounds. But at this point, everyone should have a basic will, and certainly everyone with children should have a will that reflects custody, should something happen to you. You can work with a lawyer to draft up an expensive will that establishes trusts and whatnot for several thousand dollars. Or you can go online and do it quickly and much more cheaply at FreeWill or LegalZoom. It may not be as robust, but for most people it will do in a pinch.

Buy life insurance. Yes, it’s still possible — at least for younger people, although I do not know for how much longer. You can do it online.

Check out your state’s hospital bed capacity. The IHME has a great website that they update pretty regularly that shows how many ICU units each state possesses versus what will be needed during the peak of the nearest contagion. It’s worth checking out the capacity of your state.

Wear a face mask at all times when outdoors. The obvious reason that the CDC did not want Americans to wear masks is that we did not have enough for frontline medical workers. And they deserve all our supplies. However, from this point on, it is no longer sensible to be outdoors without a mask to cover your mouth. So make your own and improvise. If for no other reason than the fact that it is a good reminder to not touch your face.

Share inventory with a small group of family/friends. There are certain supplies that have become very difficult to locate, because they are sensible to own during these perilous times. But let’s face it, even if we get sick — it’s unlikely we will use 500 doses of Tylenol. Same goes for Pulse Oximeters, Zinc and Vitamin C tablets, face masks, gloves, and so much more. Create a simple google doc that shares your existing inventory of needed items so that should worse come to worst, your sister knows that she can ask to borrow your pulse oximeter. You in turn can borrow her excess bleach and gloves.

Don’t hoard, but build up your food reserves. There is no point in buying several gallons of milk. The last thing we want to do right now is waste food, or buy so much of it that vulnerable populations do not have access to it. What you do want to do however is slowly build your reserves of oats, honey, rice, pasta — basically shelf-stable foods. And canned vegetables and fruits. It’s all fine and good for the government to tell us that there is a lot of food available — but that relies on an intricate system of truck drivers, loaders, grocery workers. The fact is that many of the moving parts of this system can break down at a moment’s notice for any given geographic region. Not to mention the fact that much of our food is sourced globally. And/or picked by migrant workers that find themselves unable to come into the country. What I am getting at is that the food situation is a lot more precarious then they would like us to believe.

Give. Give generously. Give often. A financial disaster unparalleled since the time of our grandparents is coming around the corner. The Dow is heading back to 19,000. No amount of stimulus is going to overcome the shutdown that will be needed to overcome this disease, now that almost half a million cases have been recorded all over the United States. There is no “opening back up” in May. Or June. Or July. Or August. We simply need to accept that our fundamental way of life has changed until there is either an effective treatment or a vaccine. So if you have the privilege of generosity during these challenging times, then start with family and friends and move outwards to common pantries, soup kitchens, homeless shelters. There will soon be a crazy amount of people that need help. Just remember, we can (eventually) revive our dead economy. The same cannot be said of people. This is not an either/or situation. There is no alternative whereby the economy is saved just by letting a million or so people die. If we “get back to work” too quickly — we will simply cause the collapse our economy alongside a million deaths.

Friends and family have said that I am prone to being too “doom and gloom.” That may well be the case. I hope I am wrong. I have been hoping to be wrong ever since I wrote my first article on this subject back on March 10th, and my second, and my third. It’s important to understand that these are not my opinions. I am just a researcher. I read and analyze the thoughts and ideas of people a hell of a lot smarter than I am. Then I listen to them and I prepare. You should, too.