COVID 19: States are opening up, should you venture out too?
The short answer is no.
I am a city girl, hence not used to fruit flies. So I was unprepared for the quick infestation that appeared in my Arkansas kitchen when I let some bananas get overripe on the counter. A quick google search followed by sage advice from my mom suggested that I leave a glass of sweet vinegar on the counter, with a drop of dish soap in it. Within hours, the glass held carnage.
Looking at the glass, you can’t help but wonder about the self-preservation instincts of the fruit fly. Why do they keep trying to land on the sweet sticky liquid when so many of their comrades float dead on it? Do they not sense danger? Do they not learn from all that death?
I think you can see where I am going with this.
Here is an undeniable fact: There are MORE people sick with COVID today in the United States than on March 15th when most Americans were told to stay home. Back in March, we were running far behind on testing — but even so, even the worst case scenarios (The ones that took positive test results and multiplied it by 10x) suggested that America had about 150,000 to 200,000 sick people.
As of June 1st, assuming that anyone who gets sick stays contagious for about two weeks, we have 307,311 confirmed cases in the past 14 days alone. We’ve gotten a lot better at testing — so I would like to assume that we are no longer missing 90% of the active cases. However, we are for sure missing some. Let’s be conservative and say a fifth — since that is what percentage show up asymptomatic. Now we are looking at 368,773 sick people.
Ask yourself this….what has changed such that it was not safe to go to work when 200,000 people were sick with a highly contagious viral disease but now that 360,000 people have it — it is fine?
Why are restaurants, hairdressers, movie theaters, casinos opening back up when there are more sick people wandering around than in any other country on earth?
The answer is easy: Money.
The simple fact is we can’t go on like this. We cannot have this many unemployed people (35.3 million and counting). Despite the recent antics of the stock market, the economy is not okay. And the civil unrest that has rightfully gripped our country in the past few weeks is due in no small part to the disproportionate pain and suffering COVID 19 has inflicted on minorities, bringing to light the many systematic injustices they have long endured. And with COVID, yet again, they are more likely to get sick. More likely to die. And also more likely to experience economic hardship from our boarded-up economy.
In tackling COVID, many of us have done as asked for months. We’ve tried our best, despite the moronic ramblings of the man in the White House, to protect each other. To stay home. To cheer on front-line workers and to flatten the curve. Unfortunately, we were too late.
In hindsight, by the time the CDC revised their stance on face masks and most States shut down non-essential businesses, the contagion was already too far spread within our community. Plus we didn’t screen people coming in from Europe or ask them to self-quarantine, like many other countries were doing. And we didn’t have the testing in place to contain the virus in any way.
And now, it’s simply too late. Only when you have your numbers under strict control (think New Zealand and South Korea) then does testing and tracing become viable methods to contain this virus.
Not so when 350,000+ people are walking around with the disease.
Here is why:
Imagine yourself during a new typical post-COVID day in our “opened up” economy. You wake up, get dressed, commute to work, work, commute back, stop at the grocery store for a few items, pick up your kids from their activities, go home.
How many people did you come into contact with? I counted that on a typical day in Manhattan, I would easily be within six feet of at least 20 people, no matter my attempts to social distance. (And that’s only if I am not taking the subway.) Now, how many people do those 20 people come into contact with? How many were wearing face masks? How many were sick and did not yet know it? It’s like six degrees of Kevin Bacon…every spoke branches out until the numbers are simply too large.
At this point, we’d have to test millions of people, every day or so, to get a real sense of where this disease is and who has it. And that’s just not possible right now, not with the government and resources we have.
Thus my very scientific conclusion: Until there is a widely distributed and effective vaccine, we are so very very screwed.
Here is something I want to make clear that I think it sorely missing from the rhetoric of states that are “opening up.” We are not opening up because we should, or because the danger has passed, or because we have a treatment that works and saves lives….no. The one and only reason is because we cannot, as a society, function any longer under these lock down conditions.
In opening up, we haven’t succeeded. We have simply admitted defeat. We have thrown in the towel. We have conceded that at this point it is better for hundreds of thousands more people to die than to give in to the despair that can arise from having one in five adults unemployed.
We have to open, because opening up gives people hope. Hope of normalcy. Hope of jobs returning. Hope of a better future. And without hope, we have chaos.
If you are reading this, it is because you, like me, are worried. Worried about what throwing in the towel means for our parents and our children. And you should be worried. Because opening up means that you have to be MORE vigilant than ever — not less. It means, that as long as you can, YOU have to stay home. It means keeping the kids home from summer camp. It means begging and pleading with your parents to stay put just a few more weeks, then months…for as long as they can bear it. It means washing your hand until they are cracked and sore and wearing masks simply everywhere.
I realize how mentally and financially exhausting these past few months have been for many of us. The urge to get back some semblance of normalcy, to shop, to dine, to work, to hug your mom is overwhelming and undeniable. Not to mention the moral obligation and burning desire many of us feel to attend BLM rallies, no matter the health cost.
And yet, with the exception of rallies and grocery runs, you need to stay put. It’s more dangerous out there than ever. Cases are rising in many states. Close to a thousand people still die daily. The simple fact is — it is not safe. And you need to stay the course, for as long as you can afford it, for as long as you can endure it.
And there is hope. The brightest minds of our generation are on an all-out race for the vaccine. There are billions of dollars being poured into the search. The vaccine WILL come. So just wait. Just hold on a few more months.
Just keep reminding yourself: we are not opening up because we can. We are opening up because we lost. Don’t let it be your life, or the life of someone you love, that is sacrificed for the illusion of normalcy.
Trust me, there is nothing in that glass that is worth tasting.
